Stay informed and prepare for the potential impact of Hurricane Helene, which is expected to strengthen into a Category 4 storm and make landfall in Florida with destructive winds and storm surge.
In this aerial view, people fill sandbags at Helen Howarth Park ahead of the possible arrival of Hurricane Helene on Sept. 25, 2024 in Pinellas Park, Fla.
Story by John Bacon, Cheryl McCloud, Jeff Burlew, Christopher Cann, Dinah Voyles Pulver, Jorge L. Ortiz and Minnah Arshad
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. – Hurricane Helene is now predicted to reach Florida as a Category 4 hurricane, part of a frightening forecast of 130-mph winds and high storm surge that brings a dire scenario for hundreds of miles of the state’s coast as entire communities are forced to flee.
Helene reached hurricane status Wednesday and was forecast to grow more powerful and dangerous before making landfall Thursday evening on Florida’s Gulf Coast as a devastating Category 4 storm, up from an expectation earlier Wednesday that it would arrive as a Category 3 hurricane.
“Weakening is expected after landfall, but Helene’s fast forward speed will allow strong, damaging winds, especially in gusts, to penetrate well inland across the southeastern United States, including over the higher terrain of the southern Appalachians,” the National Hurricane Center said.
The NHC warned that “a catastrophic and deadly storm surge is likely along portions of the Florida Big Bend coast, where inundation could reach as high as 20 feet above ground level, along with destructive waves.”
This is the “worst case for the Tallahassee region and Big Bend of Florida,” said Craig Fugate, former administrator of the Federal Emergency Management Agency and a former director of the Florida Division of Emergency Management. “Storm surge will most likely set records along the coast.”
The highest landfall probability is somewhere along the eastern part of the Florida Panhandle − possibly the Big Bend area, the curve of Florida’s peninsula around the Gulf of Mexico − late Thursday, AccuWeather forecasters said. Near where Helene makes landfall, general rainfall of 8-12 inches is expected, with 2 feet of rain possible in isolated areas.
The hurricane center warned in a 1 a.m. CDT update that Helene will bring catastrophic winds and storm surge to the northeastern Gulf Coast and that “preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.”
∎ Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin declared a state of emergency in anticipation of Hurricane Helene’s impacts later this week. The current track forecasts the center of the storm west of Virginia, but Youngkin said some parts of the state could see significant rainfall and flooding from outer bands of Helene.
∎ Tampa International Airport said it will suspend operations at 2 a.m. Thursday because of the hurricane. The airport plans to reopen “when safe to do so.” The smaller, nearby St. Pete-Clearwater Airport will be closed Thursday and is scheduled to reopen Friday, according to its website. Orlando International Airport said on X that it remains open but some flights could be delayed or canceled for weather-related reasons.
∎ While U.S. flights weren’t seeing a major impact early Wednesday, 12% of flights to Cancun, Mexico, had been canceled and another 16% delayed as of 1:30 p.m. ET, according to online flight tracker FlightAware. Elsewhere, airlines have issued travel waivers, allowing customers to rebook flights along the hurricane’s path without penalties, though cities, dates and terms vary widely. Details here.
∎ The Tampa Zoo said it will close its door to the public Thursday and take measures to protect the animals from the approaching hurricane.
∎ The University of Florida cancelled classes for Thursday, joining Florida State and Florida A&M universities, whose closures will last through the weekend.
∎ Helene is the fifth hurricane of the 2024 Atlantic season, about the average number for the date, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach. A typical season sees a total of seven hurricanes. If it lands as a Category 3 storm, this would be fifth consecutive year a major hurricane hits the U.S. mainland, which has only happened once before, Klotzbach said.
Flooding danger hundreds of miles inland, NOAA warns
Helene’s projected impact is so vast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration took the rare step Wednesday of reaching out to news organizations to emphasize how much damage the hurricane figures to cause in inland locations well beyond the Florida Gulf Coast.
NOAA pointed out Helene’s wind fields extend up to 275 miles from its core, warning communities in the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia to prepare for “catastrophic, life-threatening inland flooding.” Urban areas in Helene’s path, such as Tallahassee, Florida, and Atlanta − separated by more than 200 miles − along with Asheville, North Carolina, are at risk of major flooding, NOAA said.
“Even well before landfall, heavy rainfall will begin in portions of the southeastern United States and will continue to move northward into the southern Appalachians region through Friday, where storm total rainfall amounts are forecast to be up to 18 inches,” NOAA said in a news release.
Helene’s core avoids Yucatan and may get stronger, scientist says
It appears the center of Helene is staying over open water and not hitting Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday, according to Andy Hazelton, an associate scientist at the University of Miami’s Cooperative Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Studies and NOAA’s Atlantic Oceanic Meteorological Laboratory.
By staying over the water and not moving over land, the storm’s core will be able to come together unimpeded, Hazelton posted on X. “The stage is being set such that the higher-end intensity outcomes are possible depending on structure,” he said.
Millions under storm warnings in Southeast
More than 42 million people in Florida, Georgia and Alabama were under hurricane and tropical storm warnings, the National Weather Service said.
Helene could also become Tallahassee’s worst wind event in recorded history as 100 mph winds blast the Florida capital. Ryan Truchelut, founder of WeatherTiger and a hurricane forecaster for the USA TODAY NETWORK-Florida, said Helene is a storm without precedent.
“Helene stands toe-to-toe with any of the threats that Florida has faced over the past 10 years or indeed really over hurricane history,” Truchelut said.
“My gut is telling me to get out,” he said.
Possibility of 8-10-foot storm surge ‘scares me,’ bar owner says
In coastal Steinhatchee, a Big Bend town in Taylor County, Crabbie Dad’s bar owner Scott Peters supervised a crew loading beer, coolers and liquor into trucks Wednesday, moving it all to safety further inland.Peters, 46, said the storms that have hit the bar he’s owned for 19 years seem to keep getting stronger each season. The bar sits about 100 feet across First Avenue from where the Steinhatchee River empties into Deadman Bay.“We’re taking everything I can lift and move and things I didn’t take out last time that I learned a lesson from,” said Peters. “You take every storm as serious as you can because this is such a low-lying area. We’re basically at sea level.”As he spoke, a county emergency alert sounded on nearby cell phones, warning of dangerous storm surge and cautioning people to have three days of supplies on hand before the storm hits Thursday evening.Peters said he’s worried that because Helene gained strength so rapidly, it may propel a huge storm surge toward shore. He said growing up in the area people used to have hurricane parties and ride out storms. But the recent string of more powerful hurricanes has convinced him that’s no longer a good idea.“If this thing comes in and goes over us as fast as they’re saying, we could get 8-10 feet of water. That’s what scares me,” Peters said. “The thing’s coming so damn fast we didn’t have time to prepare much.”
− Trevor Hughes
Packing up, hoping massive storm turns away
In Keaton Beach, about 65 miles southeast of Tallahassee, Mike Kicklighter lifted himself up with a piece of construction equipment so he could attach a remote camera to a telephone pole on his now-empty waterfront lot.
Kicklighter, 47, lives in Georgia and normally keeps a mobile home on the sandy lot but hauled it away for safety. His neighbor’s house sits on concrete pillars more than 20 feet tall.
“I want to watch your house fall,” he joked to his neighbor as he tightened the strap holding the camera. In all seriousness, he said, they are closely watching the storm’s track, hoping it passes further west.
“We’re all pitched to roll out,“ Kicklighter said Wednesday as they finished up packing and prepared to load an ice maker into the bed of a pickup. “The biggest worry was the surge, but we might have done all of this for nothing. I hope we did.”
− Trevor Hughes
What is rapid intensification and will it occur in Helene?
Rapid intensification is when a hurricane’s winds accelerate by 35 mph or more within 24 hours. Computer models indicate a high chance Helene will experience rapid intensification over the next 24 hours, Robbie Berg, a specialist at the hurricane center, wrote in a Wednesday morning forecast.
Helene will be moving through an environment very conducive to intensification, with low wind shear and much warmer than normal sea surface temperatures. While the official forecast predicts sustained winds up to 125 mph on Thursday, Berg said those winds could be stronger if Helene “rapidly intensifies more than forecast.”
#HurricaneHelene #FloridaStorm #Category4Forecast
