Discover how recent calls for mid-decade redistricting by leaders like President Trump and California’s Governor are reshaping political power. Learn what it means for fair representation and how we can protect democratic processes.
A MESSAGE FROM THE PRESIDENT
With each passing month, our country spirals further into a partisan redistricting battle, and Missouri has chosen to join the fray. It doesn’t matter if the party doing it agrees with you politically or not, gerrymandering is unrepresentative and undemocratic.
Today, I’d like to provide some historical context around gerrymandering and how, in their quest to protect the rights of the political minority, our founders created a system that is fundamentally unrepresentative. Understanding this can help you better understand how we got to where we are today and how we can create a system that works for everyone.
How to Draw a Democracy
One of the defining characteristics of our current political system is hyperpartisanship—the idea that ideological polarization has made compromise virtually impossible. And while it’s true that dividing lines were less drastic in the 20th century than they are today, partisanship has been a feature of American politics from the beginning. In fact, one of the most common political weapons came about over 200 years ago, just two decades after the U.S. Constitution was ratified.
Massachusetts’ 1812 election was disastrous for the Democratic-Republican Party. The Federalist Party easily took control of the state house and the governor’s mansion. However, the Democratic-Republicans were able to maintain their majority in the state senate, thanks in-part to a bill signed by then-Governor Elbridge Gerry. The bill redrew the state senate districts to dilute the Federalist vote, giving the Democratic-Republicans an edge despite their lack of popular support. One district, near Boston, was so distorted that it resembled a salamander, inspiring a local cartoonist to coin a now ubiquitous term—the Gerrymander.
Centuries later, gerrymandering has become a staple of American politics and has been sharply criticized by both Democrats and Republicans. Princeton University’s Redistricting Report Card, which grades states based on the fairness of their congressional maps, gives less than half of all states an “A” rating. A third of them are graded as a “C” or worse, and some of our most populous states—Texas, Florida, and Illinois—are at the very bottom.
Historically, this practice, while blatantly undemocratic, has been accepted as an unfortunate byproduct of living in a representative democracy, abused by Democrats and Republicans alike. Last month, in a truly unprecedented move, President Trump openly called on Texas to immediately redistrict the state and create five new Republican-leaning districts, giving them an advantage in the 2026 midterm elections. Redistricting typically takes place following the U.S. Census, which occurs every ten years to account for demographic shifts. California Governor Gavin Newsom responded by announcing that California would redraw its maps as well, gaining several seats for Democrats. Now states across the country, including Missouri, are considering similar mid-decade map changes.
In today’s Deep Dive, we’re going to look at what led us to this point, if and how we can stop it, and ways we can safeguard against this kind of abuse in the future. If we don’t act now, those who value fair representation will lose what little leverage they have left.
Without further ado, let’s dive in!
The History of Minority Power
The United States Congress is a bicameral legislature, meaning it consists of two separate deliberative bodies that work together to create laws. The House of Representatives is made up of 435 members, and each state is divided into districts of equal population each of which has their own representative. The Senate, on the other hand, is made up of 100 members, and each state gets two, regardless of population size. The Senate was purportedly created to “restrain, if possible, the fury of democracy,” according to Edmund Randolph, a Virginia delegate at the 1787 Constitutional Convention—emphasizing states rights and, through the use of six-year terms, stability.
Over the last few weeks, Jefferson City has become a major battleground for national politics.
In reality, the Senate was the first in a long line of protections for the political minority. In the late 1780s, as state delegations were ironing out what would become the U.S. Constitution, a hotly contested debate broke out over Senate apportionment. Larger states, like Virginia and Pennsylvania, supported proportional representation, but smaller states, like Connecticut and Delaware, wanted equal representation—fearing that a proportional body would drown out the voices of the smaller states. Eventually, the larger states gave in over concerns that smaller states would secede if they didn’t get their way.
In 1790, the largest state, Virginia, had twelve times the population of the smallest, Delaware. Today, the largest state, California, has seventy times the population of the smallest state, Wyoming. In the Senate, the two states have equal say. To say the Senate is out of touch with the American electorate would be an understatement. On top of that, Senate rules encourage the domination of minority opinion through the filibuster—which gives the minority party the power to delay votes through continuous debate. Halting debate requires 60 votes, meaning even if one party has the majority of the Senate (51 or more senators), they need to bend to the minority to pass legislation.
Another American institution that regularly receives calls for reform is the Electoral College, which decides the winner of presidential elections. Electors are apportioned to states based on their number of congressional votes. So while under proportional representation, states like Wyoming or Alaska would receive only a single vote, the mandatory two senators per state gives them three. As a result, a vote in Wyoming is worth almost four votes in California.
Both the Senate and the Electoral College benefit states with smaller and, generally, more rural populations—which are typically right-leaning. This means that over the years, conservative parties (the Republican party today) have outsized influence in American politics. For instance, in 2017, the 42 Republican senators represented about 144 million Americans, while the 48 Democratic senators represented about 178 million. In other words, Republicans have a much easier path to a majority because they have 30 million fewer voters to persuade than Democrats.
As more people move from rural areas to cities, which are typically left-leaning, disproportionate conservative power continues to grow in less-populated states. This brings us to today, where the political minority has abused gerrymandering to force minority views on the majority.
Thousands of Missourians and Democrats from across the country flocked to Jefferson City in protest.
The Redistricting Battle
Like the Senate, the filibuster, and the Electoral College, gerrymandering is plainly undemocratic. In Missouri, for example, the state legislature recently approved a gerrymandered map that creates a 7-1 Republican majority, giving Democrats just 12.5% of the state’s congressional representation despite making up nearly 35% of the population. Expand that effort across Texas, Ohio, Indiana, and others, and soon you have a House of Representatives that is just as unrepresentative as the Senate. It’s possible that in 2026 we’ll have a president who was elected by an unrepresentative electoral college, a congress that is entirely disproportionate to the population at large, and a Supreme Court where one-third of the judges were appointed during the term of a president who lost the popular vote and won anyway.
Put simply, we’re moving toward a system in which none of the three branches of government represent the political views of the population they govern.
Can we move toward a more representative system? The short answer is yes. The long answer is yes, but it’s going to be hard.
The Missouri legislature currently has a Republican supermajority, which means one party can pass legislation without needing to compromise with colleagues across the aisle.
This phenomenon is why initiative petitions have become so popular in Missouri. Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the state immediately banned abortions. In response, Missouri voters elected to legalize abortion at the ballot box, overruling the legislative supermajority. However, not all initiative petitions are made equal. Legal abortion had to be a constitutional amendment, because, as we’ve seen in the past, the Republican supermajority can simply refuse to enshrine the people’s vote into law—paid sick leave, for instance. Repealing a constitutional amendment is a lot more difficult, for good reason.
As a result, lawmakers are moving to restrict the initiative petition process. Rather than a simple majority, initiative petitions will now require a majority in all eight congressional districts to pass—effectively rendering the process impossible. Under that new system, 5% of the population would be able to defeat any ballot measure.
Fortunately, this new system has to be approved by voters this fall, so voters still have an opportunity to make their voice heard at the ballot box. That said, opponents of the changes are using a variety of strategies to push back.
The first strategy is simple: sue. Legal scholars are divided on whether or not mid-decade redistricting violates the Missouri Constitution, which only outlines the process following a decennial census. Either way, three lawsuits have already been filed—thanks to the ACLU and NAACP. Two of them allege the redistricting is unconstitutional, and the other claims that the special session itself was illegal.
Gerrymandering dilutes the power of the people, putting more into the hands of legislators who don’t represent our interests.
This article from St. Louis Public Radio lays out another strategy. If opponents gather enough signatures, any bill passed by the legislature can be put up for a statewide vote, given the bill doesn’t contain an emergency clause (meaning it goes into effect immediately). Once the bill is passed, opponents have 90 days to gather the signatures required. We’ve seen this strategy succeed in the past when Missouri voters opted to turn down the Right to Work bill in 2017, which would have weakened labor unions.
All that being said, it’s also possible the new maps won’t serve their intended purpose. As we saw in 2018, a Trump presidency can result in disastrous midterms for Republicans. Moreover, in order to create a seventh Republican district, the new map also dilutes Republican power in the other six right-leaning districts. Trump’s polling numbers are only getting worse and there is a scenario where his unpopularity galvanizes Democratic turnout and puts some of these new, weaker districts into play. There’s also no guarantee that Representative Cleaver won’t keep his seat. Incumbents typically hold quite an advantage over challengers, even among voters of the opposing party.
The important thing to remember is that no matter which path opponents of mid-decade redistricting go down, they all rely on rallying the public. The only way these defensive strategies work is with serious public support.
Moving Forward
In the current political moment, it’s more important than ever that private citizens get involved in the democratic process and make their voices heard. Democracy doesn’t work if those who claim to represent us don’t legislate in our interests. So here are some ways residents can get involved with issues important to them.
As I mentioned earlier, it’s very likely that one (if not both) of these initiatives will be up for public vote. That means it’s imperative we do everything we can to educate those around us. If you’re reading this and find this topic important, I recommend you look for opportunities to bring it to the attention of your family, friends, and neighbors. Democracy dies in an environment that amplifies misinformation, so educate yourself on the issues so you can be better prepared to educate others.
In the meantime, I want to urge everyone reading this to contact their state and federal representatives. If you’re looking for more concrete action, you can find protests happening near you and join them. Some elected leaders may not seem concerned with public opinion, but Missouri needs to show them that people are paying attention. As always, you can find who represents you using this link.
Look—I know it’s been a lot lately, but don’t sit this one out. Our democracy only works when we all step up.
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